WTNT45 KNHC 100839 RRA

TCDAT5



TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

500 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016



NICOLE'S OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE

EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO, A SMALL

BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -80C HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST

OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, SIGNALING THAT DRY AIR

ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT.

SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN

55 KT, AND A LATE-ARRIVING ASCAT-A PASS INDICATED 45-KT SURFACE

WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE NO CONVECTION WAS PRESENT.

BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.



NICOLE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS

360/05 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AT AROUND 5 KT FOR

THE NEXT 72 HOURS, BEGINNING WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY,

FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. BY 36-48 HOURS, A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO

THE NORTH OF NICOLE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH

MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ERODES THE BLOCKING RIDGE. THIS

SHOULD ALLOW NICOLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD BY 48 HOURS AND TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS. BY 96 HOURS AND

BEYOND, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE

THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATE NICOLE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH

ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS

DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO, BUT HAVE UNFORTUNATELY SHIFTED FARTHER=