WTNT45 KNHC 120236 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016



NICOLE'S CLOUD PATTERN WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CLOUD

TOPS OF AROUND -70C.  HOWEVER, BY 00Z THE EYE WAS NO LONGER APPARENT

IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY, AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB

AND SAB WERE T4.5/77 KT.  THE EYE HAS REAPPEARED RECENTLY, BUT THE

CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE A BIT MORE RAGGED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

TO 80 KT, BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST

UW-CIMSS ADT OF AROUND 90 KT.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, WITH THE CYCLONE OVER

28-29C WATERS AND THE SHEAR 15 KT OR LESS.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THIS TIME AND IS

ABOVE THE CONSENSUS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

INCREASING TO 45-50 KT BY 48 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME

WEAKENING. NICOLE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 3-4

DAYS, BUT GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND THE FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS

SUGGEST THAT NICOLE WON'T COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHEN IT

IS LEFT BEHIND BY THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH BY DAY 5. THEREFORE,

THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE AS POST-TROPICAL AT DAYS 4 AND 5, BUT

BAROCLINIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CYCLONE NEAR HURRICANE

INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.



NICOLE HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, AS THE CYCLONE IS

CAUGHT IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  IN FACT, A SLOW

LOOPING MOTION HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE=