WTNT45 KNHC 121444 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE

DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.  NICOLE REMAINS A VERY SYMMETRIC

HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT 30 NMI WIDE EYE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLEW ONE ALPHA PATTERN THROUGH THE STORM

THIS MORNING AND RECORDED PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT,

SFMR WINDS OF 79 KT, AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB.  SINCE THE

AIRCRAFT ONLY SAMPLED A SMALL PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET 85 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE AIRCRAFT

DATA AND THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT NICOLE HAS GROWN IN SIZE SINCE

YESTERDAY, AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN

ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME

STRENGTHENING WHILE NICOLE APPROACHES BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING.  NICOLE

IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS,

BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR AS TO WHETHER NICOLE WILL COMPLETE ITS

TRANSFORMATION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR NOW,

THE NHC FORECAST MAINTAINS PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES

AND PREDICTS NICOLE TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 96 H BUT

REMAIN AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.



THE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS

TURNED NORTHWARD, AND NICOLE SHOULD STAY ON THIS HEADING WITH=