WTNT45 KNHC 130301 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016



NICOLE'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED, WITH A WARM, DISTINCT,

30 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS OF -70C. THE LARGE EYE IS

ALSO NOW VISIBLE ON THE BERMUDA RADAR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED A 700-MB WIND OF 119 KT

AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE LATEST

EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS AROUND 950 MB, A

DECREASE OF 20 MB SINCE THIS MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO SHOWED

AN EXPANSION OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHWEST AND

SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS.



THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY, REACHING 25-30 KT BY 12 H

AND 45-50 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A GRADUAL

DECREASE IN SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING IN THE FIRST 36

TO 48 HOURS, BUT BAROCLINIC FORCING FROM A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE

TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN NICOLE AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE THROUGH THE

FORECAST PERIOD. THE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS NICOLE WILL

HAVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS THE CYCLONE

WILL NOT UNDERGO A CLASSICAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. POST-TROPICAL

STATUS IS SHOWN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF

THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE

LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS BASED ON GLOBAL

MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/10, AS NICOLE IS BEGINNING TO

RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH=