WTNT45 KNHC 130840 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016



NICOLE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH

A WARM, WELL-DEFINED EYE AND STRONG EYEWALL CONVECTION.  THE LAST

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A 700-MB WIND

OF 118 KT AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 114 KT.   THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE

TO THE PREVIOUS MISSION, AND BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE

CORE OF NICOLE VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY, AND ONLY A SMALL

WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST.

NICOLE IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.

HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM NICOLE IN A FEW

DAYS, LEAVING THE CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL

SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. A RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER

THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF NICOLE, WHICH SHOULD HELP THE

SYSTEM RESUME A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5. THE NEW FORECAST

IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO

INCREASE RAPIDLY TODAY.  IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN

SSTS, THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY CAUSE NICOLE TO LOSE STRENGTH

SOON.  THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF IN ABOUT

36 HOURS AS BAROCLINIC FORCING FROM A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH

SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN NICOLE AS A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH REST OF THE=