WTNT45 KNHC 131455 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016



SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT NICOLE.  MICROWAVE

IMAGERY AND BERMUDA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS LOST SOME

DEFINITION AND BECOME OPEN TO THE SOUTH.  THERE IS ALSO A

SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER AS NOTED BETWEEN THE RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS

OF THE EYE, AND THE AIR FORCE CENTER FIX THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE

EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE EYE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE AIR

FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE

EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE

REPORTED OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, THEY HAVE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE

961 MB, WHICH IS UP SEVERAL MILLIBARS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FIX.  BASED

ON THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES,

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN SET AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF BERMUDA, SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE

WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE ISLAND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF

HOURS. THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE AT THE AIRPORT HAS MEASURED

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 KT WITH A GUST TO 90 KT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.



INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF NICOLE SHOULD CAUSE A

GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AFTER THAT TIME, BAROCLINIC FORCING IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL

MODELS TO KEEP NICOLE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE

NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE DAYS 3-5 INTENSITY=