WTNT45 KNHC 132033 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

500 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NICOLE IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES

AWAY FROM BERMUDA, MOST LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY

VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE EYE HAS MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SINCE THE LAST

ADVISORY, AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE

CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB

ARE 102 AND 90 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE LATEST CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE

IS 112 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 95 KT BASED MAINLY

ON THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND CONTINUITY FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT

DATA.



AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST

TRACK SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT

24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME, BAROCLINIC FORCING FORECAST BY THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOULD KEEP NICOLE AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AREA

OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WHAT STRUCTURE THE

CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS UNCERTAIN, WITH

THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGESTING THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARM CORE

COULD BECOME SECLUDED WITH NO COLD AIR REACHING THE CENTER.  BASED

ON THIS, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND NOT A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL/FRONTAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND THE 3-5

DAY INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE

NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/18.  THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE=