WTNT45 KNHC 140234 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NICOLE HAS DEGRADED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS

EVENING, WITH THE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SHRINKING IN SIZE AND

BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE

IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY, BUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST IT IS

LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS.  THIS

STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 40-45 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

ANALYZED OVER NICOLE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS.  THE INITIAL

INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT, WHICH IS BETWEEN THE LATEST

DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.



NICOLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE

PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS.  HOWEVER, FROM 24-48

HOURS, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE

NICOLE TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE, AND THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED

AT 75 KT THROUGH THAT TIME.  AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST NICOLE,

SLOW DECAY IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS,

FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST HURRICANE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

AFTER THAT TIME, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL

GUIDANCE.  NOTE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF NICOLE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN

DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, SINCE THE CYCLONE DOES NOT APPEAR TO

COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING

THE CYCLONE ACQUIRING A WARM SECLUSION STRUCTURE.



A 2201Z WINDSAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED

A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS=