WTNT45 KNHC 142037 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016



A FEW PATCHES OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO

THE CENTER OF NICOLE, ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IS

STILL COMPRISED OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION.

BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND

EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65

KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/17.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.   NICOLE IS EMBEDDED IN

THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH

MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS

FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS NICOLE TO THE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS,

WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW AND REDUCE NICOLE'S FORWARD

SPEED DURING THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD.  SUBSEQUENTLY, A NEW MID-

LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD STEER

NICOLE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE GUIDANCE IS

STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS, AND THIS PART OF THE

FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  BEYOND THAT

TIME, THE GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED NORTHWARD, WITH THE ECMWF IN

PARTICULAR BEING FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS

RUN. BASED ON THIS, THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

AGAIN NUDGED NORTHWARD.



THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NICOLE SHOULD

INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STARTING IN 12 HOURS OR LESS,

WITH THE MODELS FORECASTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE

CENTRAL PRESSURE TO FALL TO 940-950 MB BY 36 HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS,=