WTNT45 KNHC 151459 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016



NICOLE HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, LIKELY DUE TO

BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES FROM A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT-B DATA SHOWS 70-75 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF

THE CENTER, AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A

PRESSURE 966.6 MB AT 1000 UTC, SUGGESTING A FALLING

CENTRAL PRESSURE.  BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED

TO 75 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SOME

CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S

INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.



THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST ORGANIZED CENTRAL

CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO, INDICATING THAT NICOLE IS

LIKELY TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS DESPITE COOLER

AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE

SHOULD MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 16 DEG C OR LESS THAT

SHOULD CAUSE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE. BASED ON THIS, THE

INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NICOLE TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 72

HOURS AND THEN FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY

FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS BASED ON THE

CURRENT INTENSITY, AND AFTER THAT IT IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST.  OVERALL, THE FORECAST LIES NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE.



NICOLE APPEARS TO BE SLOWING ITS FORWARD MOTION, AND THE MOTION

ESTIMATE IS NOW 075/11.  A SLOW EASTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING

THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE IS AN AREA OF WEAKER FLOW

IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  AFTER THAT TIME, A LARGE=