WTNT80 EGRR 051619 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.10.2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 74.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2016 21.7N 74.7W STRONG 00UTC 06.10.2016 23.1N 76.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2016 24.6N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2016 26.4N 79.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2016 28.8N 80.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2016 30.9N 80.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2016 32.8N 80.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2016 33.4N 77.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2016 33.8N 75.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2016 32.8N 73.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 31.9N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 29.7N 73.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 28.3N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 62.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2016 24.7N 62.4W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2016 25.6N 63.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2016 26.6N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2016 27.0N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2016 26.9N 66.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2016 26.4N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2016 25.5N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2016 24.5N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 23.8N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 23.4N 68.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 23.4N 68.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 24.1N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 25.5N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 35.7N 31.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2016 36.0N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 35.8N 29.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 34.7N 27.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 33.4N 27.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 32.2N 28.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.6N 153.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2016 12.1N 152.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 11.9N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 11.5N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 122.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2016 14.3N 122.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 15.3N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 15.5N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.4N 116.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2016 15.6N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051619