WTNT80 EGRR 180419 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.10.2016 HURRICANE NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 43.4N 41.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2016 43.4N 41.5W INTENSE 12UTC 18.10.2016 48.6N 37.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2016 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 22.2N 69.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.10.2016 23.1N 69.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2016 23.3N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2016 24.5N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2016 26.4N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2016 29.2N 67.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2016 30.7N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2016 32.5N 69.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2016 37.0N 65.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2016 44.7N 60.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 111.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2016 13.0N 111.7W WEAK 00UTC 21.10.2016 12.9N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2016 12.8N 111.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 12.8N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.1N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 13.6N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 13.9N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2016 14.5N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.4N 141.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.10.2016 13.3N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2016 13.6N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 13.5N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.7N 145.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 13.0N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 13.2N 147.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2016 13.2N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.7N 96.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2016 12.4N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 12.7N 99.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.9N 101.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 15.2N 102.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 16.3N 103.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2016 16.9N 103.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.2N 120.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2016 13.5N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.10.2016 13.1N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180419