WTPZ45 KNHC 230846 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016



CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT DEEP

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SOUTH OF

MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.  A FORTUITOUS

0526 UTC GPM MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN

BANDING AND WAS ALSO VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE CENTER

LOCATION.  BASED ON THESE DATA, AND AN EARLIER PARTIAL ASCAT PASS

WHICH INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL

DEFINED, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THE TWENTIETH TROPICAL

DEPRESSION OF THE 2016 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 30 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH

DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.



THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SSTS OF 29-30 DEGREES

CELSIUS AND REMAIN IN AN AREA OF VERTICAL SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT OR

LESS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR

STEADY STRENGTHENING.  DESPITE THESE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS, THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS

STRENGTHENING THAN THE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE WHICH SHOW A

PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 70-75 KT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  GIVEN THE

EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE

THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT IS LOWER THAN THE

SHIPS AND LGEM.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, COOLER SSTS AND

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

THE CYCLONE.



SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE, THE INITIAL=