WTPZ45 KNHC 241433 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

900 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016



SEYMOUR'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.

THE CYCLONE'S SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME CIRCULAR AND

INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH PLENTY OF

COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.5/55 KT AND T4.0/65 KT AT 1200

UTC, WHILE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES WERE AROUND T4.5.  SINCE THAT TIME,

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT GREATER ORGANIZATION.

THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT, TOWARD THE HIGHER

END OF THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.



FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, SEYMOUR SHOULD BE EMBEDDED IN A NEARLY

IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR, WARM WATERS, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A

SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO

INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS, AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AROUND 48 HOURS,

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROUGH NORTHWEST OF

SEYMOUR SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AND INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE SHEAR

SHOULD BECOME PROHIBITIVELY HIGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND RESULT IN RAPID

WEAKENING, AND THEN A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE END OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS PREDICTED IN 5 DAYS, BUT

IT VERY LIKELY COULD BE SOONER.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS

LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE NOAA

CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL, HCCA.=