WTPZ45 KNHC 242104 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016



CORRECTED 120H STATUS



SEYMOUR IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  A PINHOLE EYE HAS FORMED WITHIN A

SMALL, NEARLY SYMMETRIC, CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) DURING THE

LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION, A LONG CURVED BAND COILS INWARD

TOWARD THE CENTER WITH A DRY SLOT BETWEEN IT AND THE CDO.  DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE LATEST

UW-CIMSS ADT VALUE IS T4.7/82 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE IS USED TO RAISE

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 80 KT.



SEYMOUR HAS ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN UNDER NEARLY IDEAL

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,

WARM WATERS, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST

ATMOSPHERE.  BY 36 TO 48 HOURS,  AN UPTICK IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH

APPROACHING SEYMOUR FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING

TREND.  WITH THE WATERS COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE SHEAR BECOMING

PROHIBITIVELY HIGH AFTER THAT TIME, RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY.

SEYMOUR IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 96

HOURS, IF NOT PERHAPS SOONER, AS DEPICTED IN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE THE GUIDANCE

THROUGH 48 HOURS, CLOSEST TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND NOAA

CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA MODEL OUTPUT, AND JUST ABOVE THE MULTI-

MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 KT. SEYMOUR SHOULD MAINTAIN A

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR