WTPZ45 KNHC 250852 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

300 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2016



THE SMALL EYE OF SEYMOUR HAS REAPPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY OVERNIGHT, AND HAS WARMED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITHIN

THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE

T5.5 (102 KT) FROM TAFB AND T5.0 (90 KT) FROM SAB. OBJECTIVE DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER, LIKELY DUE TO

THE TECHNIQUE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE SMALL EYE.  BASED

ON THE VERY RECENT WARMING OF THE EYE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

TO 100 KT.



SEYMOUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND

OVER SSTS OF AROUND 28C DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THESE CONDITIONS

FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST

CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH LATER TODAY.

AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS

SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  SEYMOUR IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN

VERY RAPIDLY BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 3 WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER SSTS BELOW 25C.  THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH

24 HOURS, BUT IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND NOAA CORRECTED CONSENSUS

MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.



THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/13 KT.  A MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO

STEER SEYMOUR WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36

HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SEYMOUR TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE TRACK=