WTPZ45 KNHC 251444 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016



MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SEYMOUR UNDERWENT AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NIGHT, WITH AN AMSR-2 OVERPASS AT

0917 UTC SHOWING A LARGER EYE THAN SEEN ON A WINDSAT OVERPASS AT

0120 UTC.  THE HURRICANE IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS

AGO IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH THE EYE GRADUALLY BECOMING

MORE APPARENT AND GREATER SYMMETRY IN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE

EYE.  THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCLUDE 115 KT FROM

TAFB, 102, KT FROM SAB, AND 108 KT FROM THE CIMSS SATELLITE

CONSENSUS.  BASED ON THESE AND CURRENT TRENDS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS INCREASED TO 110 KT.



SEYMOUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND

OVER SSTS OF AROUND 28C DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THESE CONDITIONS

FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST

CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR

EARLY TONIGHT.  AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND

COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING.  THE MAJORITY

OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEYMOUR WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN

LESS THAN 72 HOURS, DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS, AND

DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY 120 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS

AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO LIE NEAR THE

UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING

WESTWARD FROM MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER SEYMOUR WESTWARD TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.  SUBSEQUENTLY, A=