WTNT41 KNHC 210859 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

400 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED

OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER

THE PAST 12 HOURS, INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME BANDING

FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY

BETWEEN 1900-2000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW HAD A WELL-DEFINED

CIRCULATION CENTER, ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 38 KT AND SFMR

SURFACE WINDS OF 32-34 KT IN NO-RAIN AREAS. SINCE THAT TIME, AN

INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -88C DEVELOPED NEAR THE

CENTER BETWEEN 0400-0500 UTC, WHICH LIKELY HELPED TO SPIN UP THE

INNER-CORE CIRCULATION A LITTLE MORE. IN ADDITION, SHIP C6VG7

LOCATED 90-100 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN REPORTING WINDS

AS HIGH 38 KT AT AN ELEVATION OF 34 METERS, WHICH ADJUSTS TO A

10-METER WIND OF 30-32 KT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE

THAT EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED, THE OVERALL

CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT

YESTERDAY. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM

AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION, WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.



THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE

PAST 12 HOURS OR SO, AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY

TUESDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A BLOCKING RIDGE

PATTERN. BY 36-48 HOURS, AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST BY

THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE

BAHAMAS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE DEPRESSION IN A SLOW=