WTNT41 KNHC 230838 RRA

TCDAT1



HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

400 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OTTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT,

AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER

POSITION IN A SMALL RAGGED CDO PATTERN.  THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES

ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY

FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

IS ALREADY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE OTTO LATER THIS MORNING.



VERTICAL SHEAR, CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 15-20 KT, SHOULD LESSEN A

LITTLE BIT IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 H, BUT GIVEN THE RAGGED NATURE OF

THE SYSTEM RIGHT NOW, ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE

LANDFALL.  WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE THE

CENTER MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  ONCE OTTO REACHES THE EASTERN

PACIFIC, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO INCREASING

SHEAR AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  IN FACT, THE 00Z GFS

AND UKMET MODEL RUNS BOTH SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF OTTO DISSIPATING

IN 4-5 DAYS, AND THE NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS A REMNANT LOW BY THE END

OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE

SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE

GLOBAL MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.



OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION

ESTIMATE OF 290/04, ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE

CENTER OVERNIGHT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF

OTTO WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS A RESULT, OTTO SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE SHORT=