WTNT41 KNHC 240835 RRA

TCDAT1



HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

400 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016



OTTO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE

CENTER, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THERE HAVE BEEN ANY

STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE CYCLONE WITHOUT MICROWAVE OR AIRCRAFT DATA

OVERNIGHT. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE T4.5/77 KT FROM SAB AND

T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB, WITH THE 06Z UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AT 72 KT.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON

THE HIGHER SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND CONTINUITY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE OTTO LATER THIS MORNING.



THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE

OTTO MAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL, QUICK

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA,

AND OTTO IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 24 H AS A

TROPICAL STORM. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME, DUE

TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, AND THIS WEAKENING TREND IS

ALSO SHOWN IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE LOW

END OF THE TC INTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST

ENDS UP CLOSEST TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BY DAY 5, AND SHOWS OTTO AS

A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07, AS OTTO IS UNDER THE STEERING

INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.

AS AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, THE

RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS=