WTNT41 KNHC 242047 RRA

TCDAT1



HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016



SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM NICARAGUA INDICATE THAT

HURRICANE OTTO MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 1800 UTC TODAY ALONG

THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA, JUST NORTH OF THE TOWN

OF SAN JUAN DE NICARAGUA. THE PEAK INTENSITY AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL

WAS ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 95 KT AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS

ESTIMATED AT 975 MB. THIS MAKES OTTO THE SOUTHERNMOST LANDFALLING

HURRICANE IN CENTRAL AMERICA ON RECORD.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. OTTO IS LOCATED INLAND

OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NICARAGUA, JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH COSTA

RICA. EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO IS

EXPECTED TO KEEP OTTO OR ITS REMNANTS MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK

SCENARIO, AND ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL

POSITION OF OTTO.



OTTO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER

INLAND OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN

COSTA RICA TONIGHT. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM

BY THE TIME IT EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN ABOUT 12 H,

AND MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY DURING THE 24-96 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF,

UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OTTO THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS=