WTIO31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NADA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NADA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 10.2N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 10.6N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 10.9N 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 81.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NADA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAGGED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DECAYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 302123Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING STRUCTURE, AND SUGGESTS THE DISPLACEMENT DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ON THE ORDER OF 100 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMI CENTER WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS, AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. TC 04B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC NADA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOUR AS STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS CONTINUES TO ERODE THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//