WTIO31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290951ZNOV2016// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 7.6N 86.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 86.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 8.9N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 10.0N 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 10.8N 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 11.4N 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 11.9N 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 7.9N 86.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 907 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING AND DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN 291552ZZ AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 291507Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A FEW 35 KNOT BARBS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY IN PHASE WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW, THE RELATIVE VWS IS MUCH LOWER, SUPPORTING THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS HIGHLY DIRECTIONALLY DIFFLUENT WITH STRONG SPEED DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE (OVER 28C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ORIENTED GENERALLY EAST-WEST ALONG 15-20 NORTH LATITUDE. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA AROUND TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 04B IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND, AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMAINING LLCC WILL REEMERGE INTO THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA AROUND TAU 96, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE LATER TAUS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 291000).//