WTIO31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 91.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 91.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 11.5N 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 12.1N 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 12.6N 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.2N 89.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.4N 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.6N 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.6N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 91.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST NEAR THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. A 071139Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, WITH A STRUCTURE THAT HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK T- NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER 070343Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING SOME 35 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 40 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 05B HAS BEEN MEANDERING TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. AS THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT AND THE VORTEX BECOMES MORE COHERENT, A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD, THEREBY TURNING TC 05B TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 24. THE LLCC OF TC 05B IS LOCATED IMMEDIATELY BENEATH A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNELS ORIENTED TOWARD THE WEST AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH EVENTUAL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL INDIA BY TAU 120. THE GFDN IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER, SHOWING A DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC SETUP, THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL TURN TORWARD THE NORTHWEST IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF TC 05B, WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT FUTURE TRACK FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//