WTIO31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 92.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 92.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 11.7N 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 12.3N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 12.9N 90.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.4N 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.4N 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.3N 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.8N 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 92.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL ANDAMAN SEA. A 071541Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EAST QUADRANTS WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK T- NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM PGTW, CONSISTENT WITH 071543Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING BROAD SWATHS OF 30-35KT WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. TC 05B CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD AND REORIENT MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST, THEREBY TURNING TC 05B TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 24. THE LLCC OF TC 05B IS LOCATED BENEATH A REGION OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ABSOLUTE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AS THE SHEAR AND MOTION VECTORS ARE NEARLY IN PHASE. SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK WESTERLY CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 DEG CELSIUS ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS, PEAKING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AT 85 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SPREAD, BUT WITH ALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH EVENTUAL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL INDIA NEAR TAU 120. THE COTC AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIERS, SHOWING A MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT WESTERLY TRACK, WHILE AVNO AND THE AEMN ENSEMBLE MODEL ARE THE NORTHERNMOST OUTLIERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE HWRF SOLUTION AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//