WTIO31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 91.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 91.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 12.2N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.1N 89.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.8N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.4N 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.4N 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.5N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.5N 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 91.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 642 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT RESURGENCE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 081140Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH DRY AIR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON UNCHANGED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS); HOWEVER, THE BUILDING CONVECTION IS INDICATING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. TC VARDAH IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THAT IS PRODUCING MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) LOOP SHOWS A DEEP CORE OF CENTRAL MOISTURE WITH SOME DRY AIR FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION. THIS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLIC CONVECTION. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IMPACTS WILL REDUCE AS THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES IN-PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR EVIDENT IN THE TPW LOOP LOCATED TO THE WEST WILL PREVENT A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MODESTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS; REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, STEERING WILL TRANSITION TO A RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA WHICH WILL PRODUCE CONVERGENCE OVER THE CYCLONE AND FORCE IT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIA. EXPECT RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY STABLE WITH COTC THE ONLY OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON THE MODEL TREND, THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//