WTIO31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 91.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 91.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 12.5N 90.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.2N 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.0N 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.0N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.6N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.7N 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.6N 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 90.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090004Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH CONVECTION REMAINING LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY COMPACT MOISTURE ENVELOPE SURROUNDING TC 05B, WITH A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC VARDAH IS TRACKING NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF TC 05B, PRODUCING PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE, VERIFIED BY THE REPRESENTATION OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS MODERATE AT 20-25 KNOTS, BEING OFFSET BY A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE NET RESULT IS THAT TC 05B'S INTENSITY HAS NOT CHANGED IN 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ACCELERATE ON THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS STEADY ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL INCREASE, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIA. EXPECT RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//