WTIO31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 90.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 90.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 12.5N 89.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 13.2N 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.0N 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.7N 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 15.2N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.4N 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING MSI AND EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 090355Z ASCAT PASS. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T3.0 (PGTW) TO T3.5 (KNES), WITH SEVERAL REGIONS OF 35 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT FROM THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ANALYSES. TC 05B IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). IT IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA BUILDS WESTWARD. AS TC 05B CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR, ALLOWING FOR PEAK INTENSITY TO BE REACHED AROUND TAU 48. HOWEVER, SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEYOND TAU 60, LEADING TO WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER EAST-CENTRAL INDIA. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z,092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//