WTIO31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 89.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 89.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 13.0N 87.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 13.7N 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.2N 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.4N 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.6N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.8N 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 88.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A 091501Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, MOST LIKELY RELATED TO THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CREATING SOME SHEAR. A 291547Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A MORE EXPANSIVE 34 KNOT WIND FIELD AND 45 TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDOCHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EXTENDING OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND OVER INDIA WHICH WILL KEEP TC VARDAH ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 36 WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48. TC VARDAH WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. //