WTIO31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 88.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 88.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 13.4N 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.0N 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 14.4N 83.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 14.7N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.8N 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 87.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A PARTIAL 092142Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER VERY CLOSE TO FORMING A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T3.5 (55 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDOCHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EXTENDING OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND OVER INDIA WHICH WILL KEEP TC VARDAH ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AROUND TAU 36 WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 60. TC VARDAH WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//