WTIO31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 83.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 83.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.1N 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.1N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.2N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.6N 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 83.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. A 100359Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK VALUES OF T4.0 (65 TO 80 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE-STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD COURSE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05B WILL MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//