WTIO31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 13.1N 83.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 83.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 13.2N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.3N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.4N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 13.7N 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 82.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT SYMMETRIC, CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. HOWEVER, A 101228Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A DECAYING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T4.0 (65 TO 80 KNOTS), AND SATCON/ADT VALUES RANGING FROM 70 TO 75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC VARDAH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD COURSE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05B WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA AS A 60 KNOT SYSTEM. TC VARDAH WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//