WTIO31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 82.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 82.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.3N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.4N 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.8N 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 82.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 663 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM STILL LARGELY INTACT BUT STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY AS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES. AN 111600Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DISRUPTION TO THE ONCE PRESENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE NOTED WEAKENING TREND AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS HELPING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//