WTXS31 PGTW 270900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 119.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 119.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.5S 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.2S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.7S 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.3S 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 21.9S 108.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 118.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270639Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ABOM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 34 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER AUSTRALIA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT DIFFLUENCE. BEYOND TAU 24, EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL HINDER TC 03S'S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//