WTXS31 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 117.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 117.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.6S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 20.1S 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.4S 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.7S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.6S 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 116.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271111Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ABOM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND A LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER AUSTRALIA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT DIFFLUENCE. BEYOND TAU 24, EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL HINDER TC 03S'S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//