WTXS31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 114.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 114.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 21.1S 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 21.2S 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.3S 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.7S 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 23.1S 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 114.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STILL PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER, A 272226Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW REFLECTIVITY CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE LEARMONTH RADAR LOOP. OBSERVATIONS FROM BARROW ISLAND REACHED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE PASSED WITHIN 30NM TO THE NORTH, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IS T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A DEEP CORE OF MOISTURE SUPPORTED BY LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE AT THIS TIME IS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COASTLINE. THIS COULD ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICIES. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS UNDER THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT; HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//