WTXS31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 111.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 111.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.2S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.4S 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.7S 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.2S 104.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 111.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281142Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO DECREASING SST (25 TO 26C) AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//