WTXS31 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 110.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 110.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.1S 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 20.2S 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.8S 105.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.6S 103.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 109.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS EVIDENT IN A 281416Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WHICH HAS STARTED TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COMBINED WITH UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WANING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). TC 03S REMAINS ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER WEST DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND HIGH VWS. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//