WTIO30 FMEE 151912



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20162017

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (DINEO)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 35.3 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE

DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 310 SE: 310 SW: 240 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 60 NW: 60

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/16 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 33.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, INLAND

24H: 2017/02/16 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 31.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND

36H: 2017/02/17 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 28.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND

48H: 2017/02/17 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 24.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND

60H: 2017/02/18 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 21.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND

72H: 2017/02/18 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 19.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

LATEST MW IMAGERY (F17 AT 1613 UTC) REVEAL THAT DINEO MANAGED TO

BUILD A COMPACT INNER CORE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. LANDFALL TIME IS

AROUND 1630 UTC AT LESS THAN 60 KM TO THE NORTH OF INHAMBANE. A

WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS MOTION SINCE AROUND 15TU, LEFT THE CITY JUST

OUTSIDE THE RING OF STRONGEST WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 70 KT BY THE TIME

OF LANDFALL. AT 18 UTC, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED AT 65 KT TO

TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE OVERLAND MOTION. HOWEVER, DINEO NOW DEPICT AN

EYE FEATURE ON IR IMAGERY.



DINEO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINU A GENERAL WESTWARDS MOTION OVER THE NEXT

FEW DAYS. AS WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL

PACK LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL ALONG ITS PATH OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN

MOZAMBIQUE, PARTS OF SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE, NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA,

BOTSWANA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN TO NAMIBIA ... AS ELINE DID IN FEB

2000.



INHAMBANE IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING ITS THE MOST OF THE STORM SURGE AT

PRESENT TIME AS STRONG EAST-NORTH-EAST WINDS PUSH WATERS INTO THE

BOTTOM OF THE INHAMBANE BAY, AS THE HIGH TIDE IS STILL EFFECTIVE.

THIS SURGE COULD REACH 2M IN THE BAY OF INHAMBANE, AND EVEN LOCALLY

3M AT THE BOTTOM OF THE BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT TAKE INTO

ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT NOR THE SET-UP OF THE SWELL. THE TOTAL STORM

SURGE AMPLITUDE COULD THUS BE HIGHER.=