WTPS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ALFRED) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ALFRED) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 137.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 137.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.5S 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.9S 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.2S 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.1S 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 137.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ALFRED), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE EAST WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EDGE OF SWATH 200029Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE FLARING CONVECTION OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS, INDICATING SOME SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CENTRE ISLAND WHERE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE LAGGED BEHIND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SSTS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC ALFRED IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE EAST AND WILL STEER TC ALFRED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 45 KNOTS BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING HIGHER WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM'S PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL ALSO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 36 ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ACCELERATING TC ALFRED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED WESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE BUILDING SOUTHERN RIDGE THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//