WTPS32 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 166.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 166.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.8S 162.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.2S 158.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 26.9S 154.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 165.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202046Z METOP- B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 202045Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS AN OBLONG CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 35 KNOT WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. DESPITE SOME SUBTROPICAL FORCING ON THE SYSTEM, THE ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS APPROXIMATELY 60NM, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LOW TO MODERATE VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST 27-28C AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC 07P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEP TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-GROUPED NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ALFRED) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//