WTIO30 FMEE 040110 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20162017 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO) 2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 56.2 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 70 SW: 170 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2017/03/04 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 48H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 120H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED SIMILAR, WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED IMAGERY (NEAR -90 C) AND A CURVED BAND IN THE NORTH. STILL, LAST AMRS2 MICROWAVE DATA (2136Z) SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE CIRCULATION EVEN THE CENTER REMAINS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS IS DUE TO AN EASTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, CONFIRMED BY THE CIMSS (25KT AT 18Z). NEVERTHELESS, UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS EXCELLENT IN A VAST WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ACCORDING TO THESE LATEST DATA, RECEIVED AFTER THE FIRST BULLETINS, MAXIMAL WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO 40KT LOCALLY. FINALLY, THE COMPLETE 1737Z ASCAT DATA HELPED IN RELOCATING THE CENTER WESTWARDS AT 18Z. ENAWO STARTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL RIDGE THAT DROVE THE TRACK. THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR DURING THE FOLLOWING HOURS. ON SUNDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. WITHIN THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE WESTWARD SHIFT TREND CONTINUES (GFS).THUS A LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMING OF THE LANDING, WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS. OVER THE NEXT HOURS, ON THIS TRACK, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANT, PREVENTING ENAWO FROM A FAST DEEPENING. BY THE END OF THE WEEK END, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY DECREASE, AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE. HOWEVER, WITH STILL A STRONG POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY QUICKER. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BEFORE MONDAY AND COME CLOSER TO THE NEXT LEVEL BEFORE LANDFALLING.=