WTIO30 FMEE 041212



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.6 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT :   QUASI-STATIONARY



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 130 NW: 130







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

120H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5-



ACCORDING TO THE LAST CLASSICAL IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED

IN A LARGE IRREGULAR CDO, AS  DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED IN THE

EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.MW DATA GMI OF 03H13Z AND AMSR2 OF 09H06Z ARE

QUITE SIMILARE, AS THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO MARK A PAUSE.

CONFIRMED BY THE CIMSS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT  REMAINS MORERATE(20KT

AT 09Z).



ENAWO IS NOW QUITE STATIONARY. ON NEXT NIGHT THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME

WESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA

IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.

AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE

PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. WITHIN THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL

GUIDANCE, THE WESTWARD SHIFT TREND CONTINUES (GFS).THUS A LANDFALL

OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. HOWEVER

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMING OF THE

LANDING, WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.



UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAIN VERY GOOD IN THE WEST PART, SO THE

SYSTEM SHOULD GOES ON INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY, DESPITE THE

PERSISTANCE OF THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT FOR THE NEXT HOURS.

 BY THE END OF THE WEEK END, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY DECREASE, WITH

STILL A STRONG POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY QUICKER.

IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BEFORE MONDAY AND

MAY REACH THE LOWER STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOSE TO

LANDFALLING.=