WTIO30 FMEE 060018



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20162017

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/06 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 54.4 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

72H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/03/10 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , DISSIPATING





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.0



DURING LAST HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED TEMPORALLY IN

BANDING EYE (CONFIRMED BY MW DATA AMSR2 OF 21H24Z), THE EYE SEEMS TO

REBUILD ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY.



HE CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION AND ITS EYE SEEMS BETTER

DEFINED AND WARMER BY LAST IMAGERY. THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN MOVEMENT IS

NOW WELL DEFINED.



THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR CONTINUES TO

ORIENT THE TRACK IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS

TRACK WILL MAINTAIN WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE

LANDFALL, WHICH IS ESTIMATED ON TUESDAY ON MADAGASCAR. AFTER, MOVING

SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING

OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD

TRANSIT ON LAND TOWARDS SOUTH AND DISSIPATE.



THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAK WINDSHEAR, HIGH OHC ...)

DURING THE NEXT DAYS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE

INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR IN STAGE OF

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.



NPW APPEAR FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER SEVERAL RUNS TO SUGGEST A LANDFALL

OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND SAINTE MARIE ISLAND ON

TUESDAY, TIMING REMAIN YET QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE VARIABLITY IN

THE DISPLACEMENT SPEED=