WTIO30 FMEE 071902



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20162017

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 49.8 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 110

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW:

64 KT NE:  SE: 60 SW: 60 NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

24H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

36H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2017/03/10 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/03/11 18 UTC: 37.7 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

ENAWO IS NOW COMPLETELY INLAND AND IS LOCATED CURRENTLY NORTH OF

ANTONGIL BAY. CONSEQUENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION KEPT ON WEAKENING OVER

THE INNER CORE. NEVERTHELESS, IT SEEMS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THE

LATEST IR IMAGES. LAST MICROWAVE DATA  (GPM 1531Z AND SSMIS 1511Z)

CONFIRM THE DECONSTRUCTION OF THE INNER CORE. THUS ENAWO INTENSITY

CONTINUE TO DECAY RAPIDLY.





DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM STARTED TO ACCELERATE

SOUTH-WESTWARDS. FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS, ENAWO IS EXPECTED TO

MAINTAIN A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF

THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND SHOULD

SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN OF MADAGASCAR LATER THIS WEEK. AS THE

SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER OPEN WATER THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND THE

SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXTRATROP PROCESS SHOULD START SOON WITH A

BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE

SOUTH-WEST, IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH A RAPIDLY

DECAYING OCEANIC POTENTIAL.=