WTXS31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 56.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 56.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.7S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 14.0S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.6S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.3S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.8S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.5S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.8S 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 55.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A QUASI-SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 050301Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH COMPETING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS BEGINNING TO BUILD AND HAS NUDGED TC 09S WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK, ALBEIT FASTER, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 72. AS VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES, TC ENAWO IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE RAPID DECAY. BY THE END OF FORECAST, THE TC WILL DISSIPATE INLAND MOSTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF EVENTUAL LANDFALL. THERE IS AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//