WTXS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 52.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 52.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.1S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.9S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.1S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.7S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 23.2S 46.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 52.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED 25NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNEW OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STORM IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE. CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 29-30C. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR TC ENAWO PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 125 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER THE TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO BOTH THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//