WTXS31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 69.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 69.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.2S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.0S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.2S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.3S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.8S 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 28.2S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 31.0S 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 69.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND SHEARED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE LLC HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND OBSCURED. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A 100421 ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, A DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO THE SHEARED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS RELAXES, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BEFORE VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION, HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LATERAL SPEED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//