WTPS31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240121ZMAR2017// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 152.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 152.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.9S 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.5S 151.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.9S 150.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.1S 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.6S 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.1S 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.3S 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 152.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETRY AND THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP. DESPITE MULTIPLE IMAGERY SOURCES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION IS FAIR DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON A PREVIOUS 241156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOWS STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND A STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST TOWARD A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS PERIOD, EXPECT A SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARDS, THE STORM WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 72. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 60. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PAST 48 HOURS SHOWED THE SYSTEM TRAVELING FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE MAKING THE WESTWARD WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. THE SHIFT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SLOWED ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CONTINUAL SHIFT IN THE TAU AT WHICH THE STORM WILL TURN WEST, THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE TRACK LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 240130).//