WTPS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 170.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 170.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 20.7S 170.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 21.0S 170.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 21.3S 170.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 21.7S 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 170.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), AND IS BASED ON A 050924Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL WITH SSTS NEAR 28 CELSIUS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 24 WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY TWO MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGES, ONE TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A SLOW FORECAST TRACK THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE TWO COMPETING RIDGES. DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//